South Africa’s Paris Era Shift: Falling Emissions Since 2015, But Can 2030 Targets Be Met?

Authors

  • Rehab A. Rayan Thompson Rivers University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29173/bcelnfe737

Keywords:

South Africa, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, IPAT/Kaya decomposition, carbon intensity, decarbonization, climate policy, coal dependence, renewable energy transition, emissions reduction, Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), emissions trajectories, decarbonization pathways, carbon budgets, climate governance

Author Biography

Rehab A. Rayan, Thompson Rivers University

Rehab Rayan is a graduate student in Environmental Economics and Management at Thompson Rivers University, with a Graduate Diploma in Business Administration. She brings extensive experience in public health, project coordination, and international development, including roles with not-for-profit organizations. Her research interests span climate policy, health systems, and sustainable development, complemented by hands-on work in community health and behavioral interventions in Canada.

References

Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. (2021, February 3). Implementing Paris Agreement; Carbon tax and carbon budgets: DEFF briefing; with Minister. Parliamentary Monitoring Group [PMG]. https://pmg.org.za/committee-meeting/32417/

Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment/ Republic of South Africa. (2024). South Africa’s first biennial transparency report (BTR1) [PDF]. To the United Nations framework convention on climate change under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/First%20Biennial%20Transparency%20Report%20of%20South%20Africa%20under%20the%20PA_20%20December%202024.pdf

International Energy Agency [IEA]. (2023). South Africa—Countries & Regions. IEA. https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa

International Monetary Fund. Statistics department. (2024). South Africa: Technical assistance report- report on macro-relevant climate change statistics diagnostic mission (July 17–21, 2023). Technical Assistance Reports, 2024(014). https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400267338.019

Majenge, L., Mpungose, S., & Msomi, S. (2025). Threshold effects on South Africa’s renewable energy–economic growth–Carbon dioxide emissions nexus: A nonlinear analysis using threshold-switching dynamic models. Energies, 18(17), 4642. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18174642

Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. (2025). 9th national greenhouse gas inventory report, 20002022 [PDF]. https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/nemaq_nggireportt_g52067gon5850.pdf

Owusu-Mante, S. (2020, May 13). South Africa’s 2019 IRP renewable energy targets. Climate Policy Lab. https://www.climatepolicylab.org/communityvoices/2020/5/13/south-africas-2019-irp-renewable-energy-targets

South Africa. (2021). South Africa’s updated first nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement: Updated September 2021 [PDF]. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/South%20Africa%20updated%20first%20NDC%20September%202021.pdf

South African Government. (2024). Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (English/Tshivenda). https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202407/50966climatechangeact222024.pdf

U.S. Department of Energy. (2024). Country analysis brief: South Africa [PDF]. (Last updated: October 29, 2024). https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/South_Africa/pdf/SAfrica_CAB_FY24_final.pdf

World Bank. (2024a). GDP per capita (constant LCU)—South Africa. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KN?locations=ZA

World Bank. (2024b). Population, total—South Africa. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZA

World Bank. (2024c). Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e)—South Africa. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?locations=ZA

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Published

2026-02-27

How to Cite

Rayan, R. A. (2026). South Africa’s Paris Era Shift: Falling Emissions Since 2015, But Can 2030 Targets Be Met? . Future Earth: A Student Journal on Sustainability and Environment. https://doi.org/10.29173/bcelnfe737

Issue

2026: Special Issue: Ambition vs. Action — Growth, Emissions, and Climate Targets in the Paris Agreement Era

Section

Commentaries and Opinions

Categories

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