Australia’s 2030 Target Gap and the Role of LULUCF: An IPAT Analysis

Authors

  • Holly Siebenmorgen Thompson Rivers University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29173/bcelnfe739

Keywords:

Australia, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, IPAT model, carbon intensity, LULUCF, climate targets, coal dependence, electricity sector, decarbonization, net zero, Paris Agreement, emissions targets, climate policy, LULUCF accounting, mitigation pathways

Author Biography

Holly Siebenmorgen, Thompson Rivers University

Holly Siebenmorgen is a graduate student pursuing her Master of Science in Environmental Economics and Management at Thompson Rivers University. During her time at TRU, she has focused on the intersection of ecological preservation, sustainable development, and the economic valuation of ecosystem services. A lifelong traveller and outdoor enthusiast, she has explored national parks and natural landscapes across the globe—experiences that have deepened her appreciation for biodiversity and strengthened her commitment to conservation. Her academic work centers on integrating environmental well-being into economic decision-making, with particular interest in valuing ecosystem services, climate resilience, and sustainable community development. She hopes to apply the knowledge and analytical tools gained through her graduate studies to build a career that fosters a more sustainable and environmentally conscious future.

References

Ahmed, K., Apergis, N., Bhattacharya, M., & Paramati, S. R. (2021). Electricity consumption in Australia: the role of clean energy in reducing CO2 emissions. Applied Economics, 53(48), 5535–5548. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1925080

Climate Action Tracker. (2025, June 11). Australia: Policies & action. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/policies-action/

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. (2024, November). Carbon leakage review: Consultation paper 2 – November 2024. https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/carbon-leakage-review-consultation-paper-november-2024

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. (2025, September 17). Electricity and energy sector plan. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero/electricity-and-energy-sector-plan

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. (2025, August 11). International climate action. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/international-climate-action

Forsell, N., Korosuo, A., Gusti, M., Rüter, S., Havlik, P., & Obersteiner, M. (2019). Impact of modelling choices on setting the reference levels for the EU forest carbon sinks: How do different assumptions affect the country-specific forest reference levels? Carbon Balance & Management, 14(10), N.PAG. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-019-0125-9

Huang, K., Wu, X., Zhang, L., Geng, H., & Qu, Y. (2025). Increasing risk of global forest loss from extreme wildfires under climate change. International Journal of Digital Earth, 18(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2025.2483982

Leal, P. A., Marques, A. C., & Fuinhas, J. A. (2019). Decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions: Decomposition analysis by sectoral factors for Australia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 62, 12–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2018.11.003

Leandro, A. (2024). Achieving the transition to net zero in Australia (OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1794). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9a56c9d2-en

OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). (2019.). “OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Australia.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. accessed 18 June 2019. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264310452-en.

Shiraishi, T., Hirata, R. Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions from the megafires of Australia in 2019–2020. Scientific Reports, 11, 8267 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87721-x

The World Bank. (n.d.). Australia. In World Bank Open Data. Retrieved September 10, 2025, from https://data.worldbank.org/country/australia

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Published

2026-02-27

How to Cite

Siebenmorgen, H. (2026). Australia’s 2030 Target Gap and the Role of LULUCF: An IPAT Analysis . Future Earth: A Student Journal on Sustainability and Environment. https://doi.org/10.29173/bcelnfe739

Issue

2026: Special Issue: Ambition vs. Action — Growth, Emissions, and Climate Targets in the Paris Agreement Era

Section

Commentaries and Opinions

Categories

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